About the challenge

Most satellites operate within the thermosphere, the thin upper layer of the atmosphere where drag is highly variable and is measured too infrequently to gain an accurate picture. The thermosphere’s density shifts continuously with solar and geomagnetic activity, and because drag corresponds directly to that density, it remains the single largest source of uncertainty in predicting a spacecraft’s orbit and trajectory. The operational costs are substantial. Satellite operators maneuver to avoid collisions that may never have posed a real threat and carry extra propellant as insurance against orbits decaying faster than expected. Even then, predictions of when and where a satellite will reenter routinely span windows too wide to be actionable. And when a solar storm thickens the atmosphere without warning, the same uncertainty can pull satellites down before anyone sees it coming.

The rapid growth of commercial satellites, usually cast as a problem for low Earth orbit, is also an opportunity. Thousands of spacecraft already fly through the very orbits where better data is most needed, and each one is a potential platform for collecting it. What stands in the way is cost. Measurements taken in orbit are sparse, often disagree from one instrument to the next, and are expensive to collect: A single sensor can run from $1 million to $10 million. At that price, few operators can justify carrying one, and models remain starved for data exactly where accuracy matters most. What is missing is a way to measure that is inexpensive enough to deploy across the fleet.

The Orbital Clarity Challenge — the sixth in the NASA TechLeap Prize series — is a collaborative effort between NASA’s Heliophysics Division, Flight Opportunities program, and Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation. The Heliophysics Division studies space weather, including how it heats and expands Earth’s outer atmosphere during intense solar activity, creating orbital drag through atmospheric density changes. The challenge calls for low-cost methods of measuring thermospheric density, pressure, or drag in low Earth orbit. NASA is seeking approaches that are inexpensive and scalable enough to be produced in quantity and flown as hosted payloads across the commercial fleet. The challenge will unfold across three phases, advancing up to four winners’ concepts to a flight-ready solution within 12 months. At the conclusion of the challenge, NASA intends to offer each winning team a test flight at no cost.

Download the submission form (PDF). 

Deployed across satellite constellations, low-cost sensors of this kind could take continuous measurements from many points at once and deliver the global, low-latency coverage that current density models lack. More accurate models translate directly into safer operations and a more sustainable orbital environment. If shared across government and industry, thermospheric measurements could do for low Earth orbit what freely exchanged weather data does on the ground: make conditions something anyone can forecast and plan around.